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Texas vs. Mississippi State Odds and Spread: Week 5 College Football Predictions from a Trusted Model for 2024

Texas Longhorns vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs: A Historic SEC Showdown

As the Texas Longhorns prepare to host the Mississippi State Bulldogs this Saturday, the stakes are higher than ever. This matchup marks Texas’s first conference game as a member of the Southeastern Conference (SEC), a significant milestone for the Longhorns. With a perfect 4-0 record, Texas is riding high, having won each of its games by a margin of at least 19 points, including a resounding 51-3 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. In stark contrast, the Bulldogs are struggling, currently on a three-game losing streak, following a 45-28 defeat against Florida.

Game Details

Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET at the iconic Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. The Longhorns enter the game as heavy favorites, with a spread of 37.5 points, while the over/under has seen an increase from 55.5 to 62.5 points, according to SportsLine consensus. For those looking to make informed bets, the model at SportsLine has simulated this matchup 10,000 times, providing valuable insights into potential outcomes.

Texas Longhorns: A Force to Be Reckoned With

Texas has arguably the most enviable quarterback situation in college football. With junior Quinn Ewers sidelined due to an abdominal injury, freshman sensation Arch Manning has stepped up admirably. Manning has thrown for over 480 yards and six touchdowns in his brief time on the field, showcasing his potential as a future star. Reports indicate that Manning will once again take the reins against Mississippi State, allowing Texas to maintain its offensive momentum.

The Longhorns’ ground game is equally impressive, led by junior running back Jaydon Blue, who shined in the recent victory over Louisiana-Monroe with 120 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Facing a Mississippi State defense that has allowed at least 30 points in each of its last three games, Texas’s offensive prowess could prove overwhelming.

Moreover, Texas has demonstrated a knack for covering large spreads, having done so in seven of their last eight games. This trend, combined with their current form, makes them a formidable opponent for the Bulldogs.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Seeking Redemption

On the other side of the field, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are in dire need of a turnaround. Despite their recent struggles, the Bulldogs have shown resilience, scoring at least 17 points in each game of their three-game skid. Their most recent performance against Florida saw them rush for 240 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. This offensive output, while not enough to secure a win, indicates that they have the capability to put points on the board.

With senior quarterback Blake Shapen out for the season due to a shoulder injury, freshman Michael Van Buren Jr. will take over the starting role. Van Buren showed promise in his debut, leading two extended drives against Florida, including a rushing touchdown. Junior wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. has emerged as a key target, catching 22 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns this season.

Betting Insights and Predictions

For those interested in betting on this matchup, the odds reflect Texas’s dominance. The Longhorns are favored by 37.5 points, with a money line of -10000 for Texas and +1325 for Mississippi State. The over/under has been set at 62.5 points, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair.

The SportsLine model, which has a proven track record of generating profits for its users, leans towards the Under for this game. Additionally, it has identified a point-spread pick that has been successful in over 50% of its simulations.

What to Watch For

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on how Texas’s offense, led by Manning and Blue, performs against a struggling Mississippi State defense. Conversely, the Bulldogs will need to find a way to exploit any weaknesses in the Longhorns’ defense while ensuring that their own unit can contain Texas’s explosive plays.

This matchup not only serves as a critical test for both teams but also sets the stage for Texas’s future in the SEC. With a storied history and a passionate fan base, the Longhorns are eager to make their mark in their new conference, while the Bulldogs look to regain their footing and turn their season around.

As the anticipation builds for this historic clash, fans and analysts alike will be eagerly awaiting the outcome of what promises to be an exciting and pivotal game in the college football landscape.