The Bye Weeks Are Here: Week 5 NFL Picks and Predictions
As the 2024 NFL season rolls into Week 5, fans are greeted with the first bye weeks of the year. With the Lions, Eagles, Chargers, and Titans taking a break, the volume of games drops from a full slate to just 14. However, the action remains captivating, featuring a thrilling London game and a classic NFC-AFC Super Bowl rivalry. Let’s dive into the matchups and predictions for this week’s games, ensuring you’re well-prepared for the weekend’s gridiron battles.
Game of Midweek: Buccaneers at Falcons (-2, 43.5 o/u)
Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video
This matchup serves as a sneaky revenge game for Falcons coach Raheem Morris, who previously helmed the Buccaneers. The Falcons have bolstered their pass defense, while the Bucs are struggling, particularly in run defense under Todd Bowles. With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in the backfield, Atlanta has the tools to exploit Tampa Bay’s weaknesses. Expect a close contest, but the Falcons should edge it out.
Pick: Falcons win 24-20 and cover the spread.
Game of the Week: Cowboys at Steelers (-2, 43 o/u)
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock
In a clash of two storied franchises, the Cowboys head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s running game, now featuring Justin Fields, will be tested against a Cowboys defense that recently found its footing. The Steelers thrive in physical matchups, and with their formidable pass rush, they could disrupt Dallas’s offensive rhythm. This game promises to be a grind, favoring the home team.
Pick: Steelers win 20-16 and cover the spread.
Lock of the Week: 49ers (-7.5, 50.5 o/u) over Cardinals
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
The 49ers are on a roll, with Brock Purdy showcasing his ability to stretch the field. The Cardinals’ defense has struggled against the run, and with a balanced offensive attack, San Francisco should dominate. Kyler Murray is facing challenges, and going up against Nick Bosa’s relentless pass rush won’t help. Expect a decisive victory for the 49ers.
Pick: 49ers win 31-14 and cover the spread.
Upset of the Week: Bengals (+2.5, 51 o/u) over Ravens
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Ravens are looking to capitalize on their strong running game against a Bengals defense that has shown vulnerability. However, Joe Burrow is back in form, and with a full complement of receivers, he can exploit mismatches in the passing game. This AFC North rivalry is always intense, and the Bengals may just pull off the upset.
Pick: Bengals win 27-24.
Jets at Vikings (+2.5, 40.5 o/u)
Sunday 9:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network (in London)
The Vikings are riding high at 4-0, but they face a tough Jets defense that could disrupt their rhythm. Sam Darnold has been efficient, but the Jets’ defense will present a significant challenge. This game could hinge on the performance of Breece Hall and the Jets’ running game, making it a tight contest.
Pick: Jets win 20-17.
Panthers at Bears (-4, 42.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Andy Dalton continues his revenge tour against the Bears, but he’ll face a tough defense that can contain his top targets. Meanwhile, Caleb Williams is finding his stride, and the Bears’ offense could exploit the Panthers’ weaknesses. Expect a solid performance from Chicago at home.
Pick: Bears win 27-14 and cover the spread.
Dolphins (-1, 38.5 o/u) at Patriots
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
The Dolphins are looking to establish a run-heavy attack, and with Tyler Huntley under center, they have the potential to exploit the Patriots’ secondary. Expect big plays from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, leading to a solid victory for Miami.
Pick: Dolphins win 24-13 and cover the spread.
Browns at Commanders (-3, 44 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox
Deshaun Watson is struggling with inconsistency, and the Commanders are finding their groove with rookie Jayden Daniels. Washington’s defense has been solid, and they should be able to capitalize on Cleveland’s offensive dysfunction. This matchup favors the home team.
Pick: Commanders win 27-20 and cover the spread.
Colts at Jaguars (-2.5, 46 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
The Colts are hoping for the return of Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson, but the Jaguars are desperate for a win after a rough start. With a strong running game and a solid defense, Jacksonville should be able to secure a much-needed victory at home.
Pick: Jaguars win 23-20 and cover the spread.
Bills at Texans (pick ’em, 46.5 o/u)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS
This matchup features a battle of quarterbacks, with C.J. Stroud and Josh Allen leading their respective offenses. The Texans have the edge with home-field advantage, and Stroud’s weapons could prove pivotal in a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Texans win 27-24.
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5, 36.5 o/u)
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox
In a heated divisional rivalry, both teams have shown inconsistency this season. The Broncos’ defense has been performing well, and they should be able to contain the Raiders’ offense. Expect a low-scoring, hard-fought battle.
Pick: Broncos win 20-17 and cover the spread.
Packers (-3.5, 48 o/u) at Rams
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Packers are looking to build momentum with Jordan Love under center. With a diverse set of offensive weapons, they should be able to exploit the Rams’ secondary. Expect a solid performance from Green Bay.
Pick: Packers win 34-24 and cover the spread.
Giants at Seahawks (-6, 42 o/u)
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
The Giants are struggling, and Daniel Jones may be on the brink of being benched. The Seahawks are poised to take advantage of this situation, with a potent offense that can put points on the board quickly. Expect a comfortable win for Seattle.
Pick: Seahawks win 27-17 and cover the spread.
Saints at Chiefs (-5.5, 42.5 o/u)
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
In a primetime showdown, the Chiefs will look to exploit the Saints’ defense. Patrick Mahomes is always a threat, and with a solid supporting cast, he should be able to lead Kansas City to victory, though it may be closer than expected.
Pick: Chiefs win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.
Stats of the Week
- Week 4 record straight up: 10-4
- Week 4 record against the spread: 8-5
- Season-to-date straight up: 38-24
- Season-to-date against the spread: 27-20
As the bye weeks commence, Week 5 promises to deliver exciting matchups and pivotal moments that could shape the rest of the season. Whether you’re a die-hard fan or a casual observer, there’s plenty to look forward to as teams battle for supremacy on the field.