Trump’s Stronghold: Texas in the 2024 Election
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, former President Donald Trump appears poised to retain Texas, a state that has long been a Republican stronghold. Recent polling data suggests that despite earlier speculations about the competitiveness of Texas for Democratic candidates, Trump maintains a solid lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Recent Polling Insights
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/Nexstar Media poll, conducted between September 22-24, surveyed 950 likely Texas voters and revealed Trump leading Harris by 5 points, with 51% to Harris’s 46%. This marks a slight increase from an earlier Emerson poll conducted in early September, where Trump held a 4-point lead (50% to 46%). The margin of error for both polls was relatively tight, at plus or minus 3.1 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively, indicating that while the race is competitive, Trump’s lead is statistically significant.
In addition to the Emerson poll, an ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters indicated an even larger lead for Trump, showing him ahead by 8.6 points (54.3% to 45.7%). This survey was conducted between September 7 and 24, with a margin of error of 4.9%. Another poll from the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, which surveyed 1,200 likely voters from September 13-18, also showed Trump with a 6-point advantage (50% to 44%).
Historical Context of Texas Politics
Texas has a storied history as a Republican bastion, having voted for a Republican presidential candidate in the last 11 elections. The state’s demographic shifts and evolving political landscape have led some Democratic figures to suggest that Texas could be competitive for Harris in 2024. Notably, former Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke, who narrowly lost the 2018 Senate race to Ted Cruz, expressed optimism about the changing dynamics in Texas. He pointed out that while Barack Obama lost Texas by 16 points in 2012, Hillary Clinton lost by only 9 points in 2016, and Joe Biden reduced that margin to 5.6 points in 2020. O’Rourke believes that if Trump is forced to defend Texas, it could open up opportunities for Democrats in other states.
Expert Opinions on the Race
Despite the optimism from some Democratic leaders, political analysts remain cautious about the prospects of flipping Texas. Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, has suggested that while Harris may make the race more competitive than Biden did in 2020, he does not foresee her outperforming Biden’s numbers significantly. Jones predicts that a Trump victory in Texas is likely to be in the mid-to-high single digits, reinforcing the idea that while the race may tighten, Trump remains the favorite.
Current Forecasts and Trends
Recent polling trends and forecasting models support the notion that Trump is the frontrunner in Texas. As of September 25, FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average indicated that Trump held a 6.3-point lead over Harris. Additionally, the forecaster Race to the White House assigned Trump a staggering 91% chance of winning Texas, further solidifying his position as the likely victor in the Lone Star State.
The Road Ahead
As the election date draws nearer, the political landscape in Texas will continue to evolve. While Trump’s current lead suggests a stronghold in the state, the dynamics of voter turnout, campaign strategies, and emerging issues could still play a significant role in shaping the final outcome. The focus will remain on how both campaigns mobilize their bases and appeal to undecided voters in a state that, while historically red, is experiencing shifts that could influence future elections.